In Stanley Kubrick's deeply dark, deeply insightful, and sadly timeless classic film "

Dr. Strangelove: Or How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Bomb

", we see people at every level of power and influence trying to figure out just how to deal with a potential catastrophe and reality of their own making. In the end (spoiler alert), well... things don't go well.

While the algorithms we have allowed to be designed have not yet grown to such a potentially calamitous end, they 

 and are deserving of our constant review and critique. 

Massively popular and also massively influential. And what do we know about it? Very little. How much do we talk about it? Very little. But we should.

Can we talk about the Spotify Discover Weekly algorithm? 

If you use Spotify with any regularity, chances are you are probably a fan of the 

 playlist, Spotify's algorithmically-determined list of songs tuned to you. 

Since its launch in 2015, it has been met with near-universal acclaim and listenership. A 

quick Twitter sentiment analysis for "discovery weekly"

shows overwhelming positivity - even when it misses, it still hits.

But, like all modern conveniences - from tailored ads to "customers also viewed these similar products", there's a lot going on behind its face. And with the millions of Spotify users, it has a huge impact.

With our personal data fueling this (and other) massive engines of influence, these things are worthy of understanding - and critique. I've found shockingly little critical discussion around the impact of Spotify's algorithm when the likes of Facebook, YouTube, and Google are being called before Congress to discuss their algorithms, so I've decided to take a deeper dive and consider it all.

Straightaway, I'll tell you that the Spotify is close-lipped about their algorithm because it is a private company protecting their intellectual 

. Secondly, it is very complicated, but not impossible to understand. Software engineer Sofia Ciocca published an 

in-depth Medium piece on how the Spotify algorithm works back in 2017

 that exposed from primary sources how it worked.

At the time, she wrote it was these three components:

Collaborative Filtering: What People with Tastes Similar to You Also Like

Natural Language Processing: What The Internet Likes

Raw Audio Processing: Sounds Like This Other Song You Like

You could argue that the above components map to "old school" discovery - asking your friends who like the music you do what they are listening to (#1), browsing music blogs or print reviews (#2), or ... just hearing a beat you like from a radio 15 feet away (#3). There's wisdom in modeling it as such - why reinvent the wheel?

But it's important to understand that 1) these algorithms are fueled by 

 positive) of a massive audience being influenced by a homogenous algorithm.

Don't be ignorant to the fact that your personally identifiable data is being used by Spotify to provide you this service, and to provide it to other paying users. But also: 

that data may be used or sold to third parties

. But that's the bargain, right? Thanks to laws like the 

 - most companies have been forced to provide a way for you to request or delete your data in a timely manner.

Quora: How Can I Download My Spotify Data?

There have been relatively few studies on the effects of Spotify on user's consumption of and discovery of new music. But one study, 

‘How Consumers’ Adoption of Online Streaming Affects Music Consumption and Discovery’

, determined that discovery of "highly valued music" increased dramatically with Spotify vs iTunes, as well as overall consumption. The general sentiment on social media also implies a deep, earned affinity with Spotify for these same reasons.

Empirically speaking, this maps to my own experience and that of my friends who I've discussed how Spotify has impacted them. I've encountered a number of new artists and albums that I now "highly value" through Spotify, and specifically 

. And of those, I've tended to purchase physical copies of the album as well.

One case in point is Pastor T. L. Burnett's 

 - a 1971 gospel album. I am not a religious person, nor do I have an affinity for gospel music but 

recommended a few tracks off this album to me sometime in 2016/17. Likely due to the algorithmic components described above, specifically my "favoriting" of tracks that feature "choral vocals" and "tight bass lines". This album has both, and it quickly became one of my all-time favorites. I bought the LP on vinyl.

What's more, is that later I saw this relatively unknown album in the front window of 

 that same fall of 2017. How did that happen? Was Spotify suggesting it to me because they conspired with a tiny label to push sales of a 2010 re-released album that had little fanfare before or after? Or because, rather, it resonated with others that shared my similar tastes?

So, both objectively and empirically, I tend to think that the Impact on End-Users with Spotify is a 

It's been shown to increasingly expose listeners to music they find "highly valued".

: Keep in mind these recommendations are coming from an opaque algorithm from an organization with a profit motive. While useful, we have little way of knowing what goes into it. More on this later.

The Impact On Overall Sales: Initial Disruption Followed By Some Positive Trend

The record store as we knew it pre-iPod is long gone, replaced by digital downloads or more recently, streaming. And, since the nadir of music sales in 2015, 

it's been climbing in large part to streaming

. But there has been a recent and very interesting development. A few weeks ago, 

the RIAA announced vinyl sales have eclipsed CDs for the first time in three decades

, vinyl sales were being driven by streaming.

This stream-then-buy has been the case for me. I can't tell you the number of artists I've been introduced to - or re-introduced to and I've bought the vinyl. Apparently it's the same for other listeners? Emotional attachment may very well be turning into sales (again).

So, by all accounts while streaming (or perhaps the 

) killed the traditional music-buying marketplace, in its place a new ecosystem has risen. The barriers to discovery and purchase are lessened, but so has the need to purchase discrete albums and tracks lessened. 

One thing that an algorithmic approach to music discovery does provide is a wider view of cross-genre interests. I could not find any definitive information on the growth of genre diversity among listeners, but empirically - I've seen this in myself, and in my friend network.

The Impact On Artists: Likely Positive, But Is a Single Point of Failure

From an artist-revenue perspective, the general attitude is that 

Spotify isn't pulling its weight with the "middle class" of artist

. But, from a music discovery and overall awareness perspective, 

there's never been an opportunity like Spotify

When compared to the industrial "Top 40" machine, the "fairer" marketplace that is Spotify appears to be a win for most artists as they have a more open playing field. However, the payout (as mentioned in those prior articles) is a pittance compared to the sale of a physical disc or MP3 download.

In direct context with the algorithm - as long as the algorithm is solely based on user-generated patterns and NOT through sponsored nudges, etc - the algorithm looks to be working.

So, in sum: likely positive, but as Spotify is the 1000-pound gorilla and gatekeeper, it demands constant critique and attention. If it fails, a huge avenue for musicians fails.

The Problem With Algorithms: Transparency

Overall, my research says to me there is a positive outcome from the Spotify algorithm. However, the algorithm is opaque and proprietary, like most algorithms - including Google Search. And considering its massive impact on consumers, it demands criticism and investigation, on two fronts: 1) is Spotify allowing external influence and 2) how is the personal data being used?

Regarding external influence - it's hard to determine this except by outside observation. But, the driving force behind the recommendations appears to be data alone. Obviously we can't know that for certain - but 

 Spotify has been fairly transparent in the methods it uses and 

 music is so intensely personal that a song out of place in a Discover Weekly feels like your shirt is on backward. Listeners will smell (hear?) a rat.

In the Google world, there is much research, reporting, sleuthing, and experimentation done against that algorithm. From my research, 

this has happened, albeit on a very limited scale

, with Spotify as well. And that's completely necessary for businesses (artists) who use the platform, but also for consumers to have confidence that they are not being unduly influenced. Ever hear of 

The homogeny of the algorithm and our intensely growing comfort and need for it needs checking on occasion. Find other sources of recommendation, otherwise we will all collapse into a Spotify singularity.

Overall, through objective research and empirical observation, I think it is fair say that the net result of Spotify and its Discover Weekly algorithm

 for listeners has been very positive. For musicians 

(ignoring for a moment the overall music marketplace)

 has also been positive, though less conclusively so. 

 suggestion algorithm appears to do a good job of recommending music users like and tends to promote music discovery and genre expansion in ways that we've never seen before on a massive scale. Not everyone has that "one friend" who is a tastemaker, after all. 

: The overall market share and audience influence that Spotify has coupled with the lack of transparency is deeply concerning and demands constant critique and investigation. 

While not necessarily as important as, say, governance or legislation, music, and the environment needed to create it is a critical part of culture and the human condition. Completing ceding that it into the hands of an opaque, monolithic entity is a recipe for disaster.

And never forget that your data is running it. You are a stakeholder, and you have influence.

Shortly after Amazon Prime launched, I noticed a lot of pressure on ecommerce vendors (and really, anyone who was shipping anything) to ship quickly and ship cheaply. If it didn't say "Free Shipping", it was dead. It became a major trend because users were factoring it into their purchasing decisions. And now everyone, from Etsy to eBay offer expedited, free shipping.

, but you could also call it "The YouTube Effect" because shortly after YouTube hit the mainstream in the early 2010s users came to expect quick, cheap, high-quality, lag-free video streaming. If you or the vendor you chose to stream video didn't live up to that it was a letdown. But few for-pay video streamers could do that - though thanks to tech and bandwidth improvements, they have - because they were forced to.

Now, recommendation engines like Spotify's have changed the game for any sort of recommendations - from music to shopping to the "related posts" at the bottom of a blog post.

Research

Privacy & Compliance

Analysis

A Critical Look at Spotify's Algorithms, Or: How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Algorhythm

It’s a question that most of our clients have, when they have a budget for digital advertising:

Where should we spend our digital ad budget? Where is our audience?

That’s a simple question that demands a detailed answer. But, here are the basics:

Figure out where they are in “the funnel”

Choosing Where to Market: Be Where Your Audiences Are

First, you need to define your audience. That’s a really big, detailed question – so for the sake of answering our #1 question (when to use Google vs Facebook) – we’ll focus on “the average consumer” in the United States.

There is no truly average consumer, but when viewed in bulk, we know the majority of the audiences that an agency like ours, who deals in equal parts consumer and business-to-business brands, are 

Another defining characteristic of “the average consumer” is that they use both Google and Facebook or Instagram on the regular – nearly all Americans use one or the other daily – and here are the numbers that back that up:

According to Hootsuite, 68% of Americans use Facebook daily, 35% use Instagram daily

68% of Americans do a search in a month, and the average searcher searches Google 3-4 times a day (at least as of 2016) 

is why we are focused on Google vs Facebook today. There are plenty of other platforms – such as Twitter, Pinterest, Snapchat and YouTube that all offer ad platforms but they also tend to break differently among demographic lines – age, gender, etc. However – that is a far more expansive and detailed conversation (and frankly, why “strategy” exists!).

Last year, we held a day-long workshop for the 

 – talking with an amazing group of leaders and marketers for non-profit groups. Their questions surrounding digital advertising spurred the article you are reading, and I put together a quick illustration to help guide the conversation.

If you are reading this, you probably have some sort of familiarity with the “marketing funnel” – but if not, it’s a fairly straightforward idea. The funnel is a visual representation of a consumer’s journey with your organization. We’re attempting to get consumers down our funnel, and at the bottom is whatever makes them a customer of ours – probably a product sale but could also be a membership, donation or a sales lead.

Each level of the funnel directly corresponds to a different user situation. At the 

 stage, customers are just finding out about your product or service. We draw them in with content and info. Being where the consumer is searching is key during the AWARENESS phase. 

 is next – consumers are looking at numerous options, comparing and contrasting, as well as considering if what you are offering has the right value to them. All of a sudden, the conversions has become far more individualized and personal during CONSIDERATION. After considering your offerings, the next (and hardest) step is 

. Intensely personal, this step is where the deal is sealed. The consumer’s trust that they are making the right decision must be high.

The funnel is a map – and you have to think about how many of your audience are in what step of the funnel. If you are a new brand, product or service – most of your audience will be in the Awareness step. If you are an established brand, most of them will be in the consideration step – but you can’t ignore that pipeline of new consumers in awareness.

Our observation is also that at the top of the funnel, there is a HUGE audience, but your impact is going to be small – value-wise. Nearer the conversion point, the audience gets smaller, but each “touch” you have with the consumer has more and more value. That balance between size of audience and value of impact are critical concepts when it comes to assigning budget.

The Strengths and Weakness of Google vs Facebook

Google is for finding things out and Facebook is for … well we aren’t sure but you look at it a million times a day and it knows a LOT about you.

I’m going to generalize here to give an example of the thought process: let’s assume that you are an established product or service, but just haven’t spent a lot of time or effort marketing. People know you and have visited your website (you do have a website, right?).

Google Search works by you “bidding” on keywords that directly or indirectly match the search terms of the consumer. Facebook works by serving ads targeted (demographically, geographically, by “affinity” or by their engagement with your page or website) to the consumer – who has given up some of that info in exchange for access to Facebook.

Both are valid approaches – but both fit into different levels of the funnel.

Google Search tends to favor the “awareness” level of the funnel

 – broad awareness as we can easily bid on keywords that are similar to our product (e.g. “running shoes”), and when the consumer types in “best shoes for running”, our ad is likely to appear. In this way, we have access to a 

 of potential consumers who have shown an intent towards our product.

Facebook tends to favor those further down the funnel – in “consideration”, but only because they aren’t there to search.

 Remarketing (targeting consumers that have previously visited your website) is one of the most powerful tools Facebook offers. Since we know they’ve shown an intent toward our product, we can offer them more information to help them seal the deal (in the form of an ad or a post). That’s not to say that people don’t use Facebook intentionally to research – they do – but not quite as intentionally as Google Search. Few people type in “running shoes” into Facebook and click on what pops up. However, they might see an ad for “New Balance” elsewhere, and then search for “New Balance” and land on their Facebook page.

Intentional vs Unintentional and Frequency of Use

Now, let’s shift perspective to that of the consumer. When consumers use Google Search, they are most often 

. When consumers use Facebook or Instagram, they are most often not – they are looking for updates from friends – and you could generally argue that scrolling through a feed is 

. Generally speaking most people will spend FAR more time in Facebook or Instagram than in Google Search – but as we just mentioned, the time spent on Google Search is far more focused and intentional. However, users may skip a day or more between intentional searches. People will go back to Facebook multiple times a day.

Now that we understand that a bit better – we can understand when we should use Google Search Ads and when we should use Facebook and Instagram.

We tend to use Google Search for acquiring new potential customers by keying off of intentional searches related to our product.

We tend to use Facebook because the frequency of use is HIGH and the ability to directly target consumers that have engaged with us previously is so easy.

How much should you spend, then? Well, generally any amount, no matter how small – is going to get you invaluable data. We tend to start small and then recommend bigger budgets as we see results and can make decisions about targeting, and see tangible results.

Google Search Ad costs vary on the search traffic (it’s a bidding market, remember!) of the keywords you desire. Facebook is strictly cost-per-click, assuming your targeting is not so narrow you have no audience to show your ads to.

Generally most of our marketing plans for similar situations end up like this:

There’s a lot of variables in that math, so the above is a ballpark. However, Google tends to cost a little more BUT is also a major driver of building audience awareness. I can’t say one is more important than the other – but to begin building a thriving marketing audience, Google Search is critical.

The Next Level: Remarketing and Audience Building

Both Google and Facebook allow you to “tag” your website and build audiences of recent visitors – and this is hands-down the most effective way to spend your ad dollars. Facebook also allows for the uploading of prior customers / subscribers and the creation of demographically similar “Lookalike” audiences.

Once those remarketing audiences are in place, you can start to shift more of your budget to discretely targeted audiences inside of Facebook or Instagram, and ratchet down your Google Search Ads spend.

As I mentioned at the top of the article, we’ve made some pretty broad assumptions based upon data and generalities – and that can help you 

 a digital marketing plan. But as you get closer to the conversion point for a consumer, your job becomes harder and harder – and you must be more nuanced and understanding of them for them to feel comfortable with you. And that … is where detailed digital marketing strategy pays off.

So, for now – spend a little $$ to get started with both Google Ads and Facebook, and learn, iterate and analyze. And if you don’t have the time, patience or interest in doing so – we’ll be glad to help! 

41 Facebook Stats That Matter to Marketers in 2019 – Hootsuite

The State of Searcher Behavior Revealed Through 23 Remarkable Statistics – Moz

Digital Marketing Optimization

Marketing Campaigns

When to use Google Search Ads (Adwords) vs Facebook and Instagram Ads?

Branding

Art Direction

Web Design

Graphic Design

Illustration

Ben Sollee

Copywriting

UX / UI

Provi

Creating innovative, well-considered strategies relies upon experience and knowledge - but also the ability to research, find facts, and identify trends and opportunities. We provide this service to clients who are challenged with new platforms, new markets and new technology. Naturally curious, we like to stay up-to-date and ahead of the curve for our own knowledge, and for the benefit of our future work.

Below is a selection of journal entries for some of our most recent research subjects.

Research

Research: Case Studies

01

Ben Sollee

02

Provi

Research: Blog Posts

A Critical Look at Spotify's Algorithms, Or: How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Algorhythm

When to use Google Search Ads (Adwords) vs Facebook and Instagram Ads?